The Asshattery of Statistics
As we exit this age of government-mandated
restrictions, statistically justified lockdowns, conspiracy theories, Public
Health Officials' consistently erroneous modeling, expressions like,
"Follow the science," The Great Resignation, Quiet Quitting, Quiet
Firing - and in general, entering the new post-pandemic world - it is more
important than ever that we understand the difference between statistics,
facts, and data.
Statistics is the discipline that concerns itself with
the collection, organization, analysis, interpretation, and presentation of
data.
In short, statistics and facts are not
synonymous.
Statistics are the interpretation and presentation
of facts, biased by one's agenda. As such, statistics can be synonymous with
half-truths - dangerous.
The Penguin Random House - Simon & Schuster
Antitrust Trial dropped a bomb - a revelation unseen, unimagined, and unheard
of before.
The fact is that 50% of over 58,000 titles sell
less than a dozen copies. Allow me to repeat: less-than-12 copies. That's
29,000 books that never sell more than a dozen copies.
It's a shocking statement. If true, the publishing
industry - or maybe more specifically, the big traditional publishers - are in
a world of trouble.
But is it true? Is it a fact? Or are these the
stats, an interpretation of the facts?
These publishing statistics aren't often what you
believe. This "dozen-copy" belongs among the ranks of
"98% of books sell less than 5,000
copies,"
"90% sell less than 2,000,"
"most books sell less than 99
copies,"
"the average indie author never sells more
than 1,000 copies," etc.
We need to ask, what do "out-of-print,"
and "in-print," and "book," and "title" mean?
One novel, one book - ONE title - can exist,
technically, in 4 official ISBN's: hardcover, paperback, ebook, and audiobook.
Should this be counted as a single title, or four? Do these titles only sell a
dozen each? Shouldn't we count this novel as selling 48?
Publishers don't count out-of-print books within
these stats. But what are out-of-print books?
Traditionally books go out of print when people
stop buying them (thus having no inventory). But today, in this modern digital
age, many books exist as print-on-demand in which a physical copy doesn't exist
until someone purchases it. There is no inventory for these books.
Print-on-demand books never go
"out-of-print" and can technically stay "in-print" forever.
Throw into this chaos creative accounting ebooks and
audiobooks, which some titles only exist as. Do these count? How do you count
them? How do they go out of print? Can they go out of print?
As a small publisher, out of our current 19 titles,
only 2 haven't broken the dozen copy sale yet (but they're new). That's about
10%. If we were to count ebooks and print-on-demand as separate titles (after
all, they each have their own ISBN's), we can add 38 titles, bringing us up to
57 published titles. And in some cases, with different electronic distributors,
even these POD titles carry different ISBN's from one another, bringing the
number even higher, likely closer to 76. But to say Broken Keys Publishing
& Press has 76 titles in its catalog would be pretentious at best and
dishonest at worst.
But what does all this mean? Should we interpret
this information to mean the small publisher is more successful than the
traditional big publishers? I'm not sure.
Conservative authorities claim this severe drop in
numbers is because publishing has become too "woke." Self-publishing pundits
proselytize the downfall of the big traditional publishers. Or are the big
traditional publishers using an outdated system, broken and archaic?
Are these 'facts' being interpreted to present a
particular agenda, manipulated to a certain constructed conclusion? And if so,
to what end?
The real question should be, why are they
fabricating this number? What is it that we are to believe when 50% of 58,000 titles
sell less than a dozen copies? Are we supposed to presume these stats represent
the entire publishing industry and lose hope? Give up? Quench the rise of the indie
author? (Maybe). But - as a small publisher, the evidence doesn't match up.
Or are we supposed to believe the big traditional
publishers are in serious trouble, feel pity and allow them to...who knows
what. Or are we to giggle with glee, hoping the day of the big traditional
publisher is over? I should hope not.
Ultimately, I don't believe these statistics mean
very much at all. The only real piece of information we can extrapolate from
this is that the big traditional publishers are more than willing to
manipulate, twist the facts, and lie. But to what end?
Don't know. Don't care.
One thing is clear. They are threatened by
something.
The publishing landscape is changing.
It has been for years, alongside printing
technology.
Could this be a prime example of, if you're not
riding the wave of change you're under it?
These are the questions we, as writers, poets,
authors, publishers, big and small, electronic distributors, and bookstores
should be asking. It matters, because one way or the other, it will affect us
all.
Michel Weatherall
A native of
Ottawa, Michel Weatherall grew up living in Europe and Germany and has since
travelled extensively.
Having over 30 years experience in the print/publishing industry, the transition to self-publishing was a natural step with his publication company, Broken Keys Publishing & Press. ( www.brokenkeyspublishing.com )
Other work (the poems “Sun & Moon,” "Purgation," "This Burden I Bear," “Eleven's Silent Promise," "The Corridor," "Purgation ",the sci-fi short story “Rupture,” and horror short story "Running Water," and the essays "The Doctrine of Fear," "A Changing and Treacherous Landscape," and "Ebook Revolution?") have all appeared in Ariel Chart's online journey.
The poem
"Jacob's Darkness" has appeared in the Indian Periodical.
Weatherall's
theological essay, “The Voice of Sophia” has been published in American theologian
Thomas Jay Oord's "The Uncontrolling Love of God: An Open and Relational
Account of Providence" (2015)
Weatherall's
current books in print are,
·
The
Symbiot 30th Anniversary, The Nadia Edition
·
Necropolis
·
The
Refuse Chronicles
·
Ngaro's
Sojourney
·
A Dark
Corner of My Soul (poetry)
Honours and Awards include
·
Winner
of the 2023 Faces of Ottawa Awards for Best Printer
·
Winner
of the 2020 - 2021 Faces of Ottawa Awards for Best Author
·
Winner
of the 2020-2022 Faces of Ottawa Awards for Best Publisher (Broken Keys
Publishing & Press)
·
Winner
of the 2021 CPACT-NCR Best Publisher Award
·
Winner
of the Faces of Ottawa 2023 Book of the Year Award (Ghosts and Other Chthonic
Macabres)
·
Winner
of the Faces of Ottawa 2022 Book of the Year Award (Love & Catastrophē
Poetrē)
·
Winner
of the Faces of Ottawa 2021 Book of the Year Award (Thin Places: The Ottawan
Anthology)
·
2021
Best of the Net Award Nominee (for Poetry: Purgation)
·
2020-21
Parliamentary Poet Laureate Nominee
·
2020
Best of the Net Award Nominee (Poetry: This Burden I Bear)
·
2019
Pushcart Prize Nominee (for Poetry)
·
2019
FEBE Award Nominee for Creative Arts
·
2019
CPACT Awards Nominee for Entertainment Excellence (Arts)
·
2019
CPACT Awards Nominee for Small Business Excellence (Broken Keys Publishing)